QuarterbackStats.comQuarterbackStats.com

2022 NFL ACE (Accuracy Compared to Expectation) Leaders

ACE counts completions minus the expected chance of completing each throw. The expected chance comes from a model of every NFL attempt over the last five seasons, using how far the ball travelled in the air, which third of the field it went to, down, distance, field position, a hit on the quarterback, roof and weather. QuarterbackStats.com's rating is built on the standard completion-percentage-over-expected idea (CPOE); we did not invent that idea.

How to read it. +10 means about ten more completions than an average passer would have made on the same throws. Throwaways and drops count against everyone the same way, because the play-by-play does not mark them.

The 2022 leaders: Geno Smith (+28.6), Joe Burrow (+17.9), Patrick Mahomes (+13.8).

ACE (Accuracy Compared to Expectation)

Minimum to rank: 14 pass attempts per team game (the NFL's minimum for passing rate leaders). 33 players.

RkPlayerPosTeamAttDropbacksACE
1Geno SmithQBSEA572650+28.6
2Joe BurrowQBCIN606673+17.9
3Patrick MahomesQBKC648720+13.8
4Kirk CousinsQBMIN643698+11.3
5Justin HerbertQBLAC699757+10.7
6Daniel JonesQBNYG472565+9.7
7Josh AllenQBBUF567650+6.8
8Jacoby BrissettQBCLE369413+6.8
9Trevor LawrenceQBJAX584633+5.4
10Tua TagovailoaQBMIA400430+5.1
11Ryan TannehillQBTEN325370+4.9
12Andy DaltonQBNO378414+4.8
13Jalen HurtsQBPHI460541+4.6
14Tom BradyQBTB733756+3.2
15Dak PrescottQBDAL394429+3.2
16Matthew StaffordQBLA303337+2.5
17Aaron RodgersQBGB542585+1.7
18Jimmy GaroppoloQBSF308329+1.7
19Taylor HeinickeQBWAS259289+0.1
20Marcus MariotaQBATL300351-0.0
21Kenny PickettQBPIT389443-1.4
22Mac JonesQBNE442494-1.9
23Matt RyanQBIND461508-2.5
24Jared GoffQBDET587624-2.7
25Kyler MurrayQBARI390437-5.2
26Justin FieldsQBCHI318439-6.0
27Lamar JacksonQBBAL326377-7.5
28Carson WentzQBWAS276314-9.7
29Russell WilsonQBDEN483565-14.2
30Davis MillsQBHOU479526-18.4
31Derek CarrQBLV502543-19.2
32Baker MayfieldQBCAR335385-22.2
33Zach WilsonQBNYJ242278-22.8

More 2022 NFL Quarterback Leaderboards

EPA per Dropback ACE per 100 Attempts Expected Completion % Success Rate Total Passing EPA Total QB EPA (Passing + Rushing) First-Down Rate per Dropback Explosive Pass Rate Negative-Play Rate Win Probability Added EPA per Dropback, Excluding Garbage Time NFL Passer Rating Completion % Yards per Attempt Adjusted Net Yards per Attempt Adjusted Yards per Attempt Net Yards per Attempt Yards per Completion Touchdown % Interception % TD:INT Ratio Sack % Passing Yards per Game Pass Attempts per Game Passing Yards Passing Touchdowns Completions Pass Attempts Interceptions Thrown Sacks Taken Passing First Downs 20+ Yard Completions 40+ Yard Completions Longest Completion 300-Yard Passing Games 4-Touchdown Games Wins as Starter Average Depth of Target Deep Attempt Rate Deep Completion % YAC per Completion Share of Yards Through the Air 3rd-Down Conversion Rate Red Zone Touchdown Rate Clutch EPA per Dropback Clutch Passer Rating Two-Minute Drill EPA per Dropback Game-Winning Drives 4th-Quarter Comebacks Quarterback Rushing Yards Quarterback Rushing EPA Scrambles QB Sneak Conversion Rate Touchdowns Responsible For Total Yards (Passing + Rushing) Turnovers Turnover Rate per Play

Other seasons: 2026 · 2025 · 2024 · 2023 · 2022 · 2021 · 2020 · 2019 · 2018 · 2017 · 2016

QBS BLOG · PASSING QUESTIONS · MINDSET

Understanding the Throw.

What the box score cannot tell you about the people behind the pass.

All Posts →
FROM THE A-GAME PODCAST

10 Mind-Body Performance Recovery Tools Backed By Science

Learn the break down of ten mind-body recovery tools, each backed by science, including how and when to use them to perform at your peak.

Listen to the Episode ↗