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2019 NFL ACE (Accuracy Compared to Expectation) Leaders

ACE counts completions minus the expected chance of completing each throw. The expected chance comes from a model of every NFL attempt over the last five seasons, using how far the ball travelled in the air, which third of the field it went to, down, distance, field position, a hit on the quarterback, roof and weather. QuarterbackStats.com's rating is built on the standard completion-percentage-over-expected idea (CPOE); we did not invent that idea.

How to read it. +10 means about ten more completions than an average passer would have made on the same throws. Throwaways and drops count against everyone the same way, because the play-by-play does not mark them.

The 2019 leaders: Russell Wilson (+29.9), Drew Brees (+28.7), Ryan Tannehill (+25.1).

ACE (Accuracy Compared to Expectation)

Minimum to rank: 14 pass attempts per team game (the NFL's minimum for passing rate leaders). 32 players.

RkPlayerPosTeamAttDropbacksACE
1Russell WilsonQBSEA516606+29.9
2Drew BreesQBNO378385+28.7
3Ryan TannehillQBTEN286329+25.1
4Derek CarrQBLV513554+21.6
5Philip RiversQBLAC591628+20.0
6Jimmy GaroppoloQBSF476522+17.9
7Patrick MahomesQBKC484524+17.1
8Deshaun WatsonQBHOU495580+16.4
9Lamar JacksonQBBAL401459+14.4
10Dak PrescottQBDAL596638+13.9
11Kirk CousinsQBMIN444481+13.8
12Matt RyanQBATL616685+12.0
13Matthew StaffordQBDET291316+8.8
14Ryan FitzpatrickQBMIA502574+6.9
15Carson WentzQBPHI607671+6.6
16Sam DarnoldQBNYJ441481+0.8
17Jameis WinstonQBTB626704+0.4
18Joe FlaccoQBDEN262292-0.2
19Case KeenumQBWAS247263-0.3
20Daniel JonesQBNYG459524-3.1
21Aaron RodgersQBGB569630-3.4
22Mason RudolphQBPIT283308-5.4
23Mitchell TrubiskyQBCHI516573-6.1
24Jared GoffQBLA626657-6.8
25Kyle AllenQBCAR489553-7.2
26Josh AllenQBBUF461540-8.9
27Kyler MurrayQBARI542614-10.3
28Jacoby BrissettQBIND447503-13.1
29Tom BradyQBNE613643-14.9
30Andy DaltonQBCIN528568-16.2
31Baker MayfieldQBCLE534589-20.2
32Gardner MinshewQBJAX470552-21.0

More 2019 NFL Quarterback Leaderboards

EPA per Dropback ACE per 100 Attempts Expected Completion % Success Rate Total Passing EPA Total QB EPA (Passing + Rushing) First-Down Rate per Dropback Explosive Pass Rate Negative-Play Rate Win Probability Added EPA per Dropback, Excluding Garbage Time NFL Passer Rating Completion % Yards per Attempt Adjusted Net Yards per Attempt Adjusted Yards per Attempt Net Yards per Attempt Yards per Completion Touchdown % Interception % TD:INT Ratio Sack % Passing Yards per Game Pass Attempts per Game Passing Yards Passing Touchdowns Completions Pass Attempts Interceptions Thrown Sacks Taken Passing First Downs 20+ Yard Completions 40+ Yard Completions Longest Completion 300-Yard Passing Games 4-Touchdown Games Wins as Starter Average Depth of Target Deep Attempt Rate Deep Completion % YAC per Completion Share of Yards Through the Air 3rd-Down Conversion Rate Red Zone Touchdown Rate Clutch EPA per Dropback Clutch Passer Rating Two-Minute Drill EPA per Dropback Game-Winning Drives 4th-Quarter Comebacks Quarterback Rushing Yards Quarterback Rushing EPA Scrambles QB Sneak Conversion Rate Touchdowns Responsible For Total Yards (Passing + Rushing) Turnovers Turnover Rate per Play

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