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2021 NFL ACE (Accuracy Compared to Expectation) Leaders

ACE counts completions minus the expected chance of completing each throw. The expected chance comes from a model of every NFL attempt over the last five seasons, using how far the ball travelled in the air, which third of the field it went to, down, distance, field position, a hit on the quarterback, roof and weather. QuarterbackStats.com's rating is built on the standard completion-percentage-over-expected idea (CPOE); we did not invent that idea.

How to read it. +10 means about ten more completions than an average passer would have made on the same throws. Throwaways and drops count against everyone the same way, because the play-by-play does not mark them.

The 2021 leaders: Joe Burrow (+34.0), Aaron Rodgers (+33.1), Dak Prescott (+23.9).

ACE (Accuracy Compared to Expectation)

Minimum to rank: 14 pass attempts per team game (the NFL's minimum for passing rate leaders). 31 players.

RkPlayerPosTeamAttDropbacksACE
1Joe BurrowQBCIN520589+34.0
2Aaron RodgersQBGB531575+33.1
3Dak PrescottQBDAL596646+23.9
4Mac JonesQBNE521563+20.5
5Ryan TannehillQBTEN531596+17.7
6Derek CarrQBLV626680+16.8
7Matt RyanQBATL560616+15.6
8Tom BradyQBTB719749+15.3
9Kyler MurrayQBARI481541+15.1
10Teddy BridgewaterQBDEN426472+15.0
11Russell WilsonQBSEA400456+13.7
12Kirk CousinsQBMIN561599+13.2
13Matthew StaffordQBLA601639+12.4
14Jimmy GaroppoloQBSF441473+11.2
15Patrick MahomesQBKC658732+11.1
16Josh AllenQBBUF646718+10.1
17Tua TagovailoaQBMIA388425+6.7
18Justin HerbertQBLAC672738+5.8
19Taylor HeinickeQBWAS494569+4.9
20Jared GoffQBDET494535+3.8
21Lamar JacksonQBBAL382465+3.4
22Davis MillsQBHOU394433+1.3
23Daniel JonesQBNYG361405-0.1
24Justin FieldsQBCHI270349-3.5
25Jalen HurtsQBPHI432506-3.7
26Ben RoethlisbergerQBPIT605644-7.8
27Carson WentzQBIND516574-9.8
28Baker MayfieldQBCLE418484-13.0
29Sam DarnoldQBCAR406464-24.4
30Trevor LawrenceQBJAX602663-29.6
31Zach WilsonQBNYJ383442-38.4

More 2021 NFL Quarterback Leaderboards

EPA per Dropback ACE per 100 Attempts Expected Completion % Success Rate Total Passing EPA Total QB EPA (Passing + Rushing) First-Down Rate per Dropback Explosive Pass Rate Negative-Play Rate Win Probability Added EPA per Dropback, Excluding Garbage Time NFL Passer Rating Completion % Yards per Attempt Adjusted Net Yards per Attempt Adjusted Yards per Attempt Net Yards per Attempt Yards per Completion Touchdown % Interception % TD:INT Ratio Sack % Passing Yards per Game Pass Attempts per Game Passing Yards Passing Touchdowns Completions Pass Attempts Interceptions Thrown Sacks Taken Passing First Downs 20+ Yard Completions 40+ Yard Completions Longest Completion 300-Yard Passing Games 4-Touchdown Games Wins as Starter Average Depth of Target Deep Attempt Rate Deep Completion % YAC per Completion Share of Yards Through the Air 3rd-Down Conversion Rate Red Zone Touchdown Rate Clutch EPA per Dropback Clutch Passer Rating Two-Minute Drill EPA per Dropback Game-Winning Drives 4th-Quarter Comebacks Quarterback Rushing Yards Quarterback Rushing EPA Scrambles QB Sneak Conversion Rate Touchdowns Responsible For Total Yards (Passing + Rushing) Turnovers Turnover Rate per Play

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