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2017 NFL ACE (Accuracy Compared to Expectation) Leaders

ACE counts completions minus the expected chance of completing each throw. The expected chance comes from a model of every NFL attempt over the last five seasons, using how far the ball travelled in the air, which third of the field it went to, down, distance, field position, a hit on the quarterback, roof and weather. QuarterbackStats.com's rating is built on the standard completion-percentage-over-expected idea (CPOE); we did not invent that idea.

How to read it. +10 means about ten more completions than an average passer would have made on the same throws. Throwaways and drops count against everyone the same way, because the play-by-play does not mark them.

The 2017 leaders: Drew Brees (+33.5), Tom Brady (+25.1), Josh McCown (+22.3).

ACE (Accuracy Compared to Expectation)

Minimum to rank: 14 pass attempts per team game (the NFL's minimum for passing rate leaders). 32 players.

RkPlayerPosTeamAttDropbacksACE
1Drew BreesQBNO536558+33.5
2Tom BradyQBNE581622+25.1
3Josh McCownQBNYJ397445+22.3
4Alex SmithQBKC505572+21.0
5Jameis WinstonQBTB442495+19.8
6Case KeenumQBMIN481522+19.3
7Matt RyanQBATL529567+16.1
8Ben RoethlisbergerQBPIT562589+14.5
9Russell WilsonQBSEA553645+11.8
10Matthew StaffordQBDET565629+9.4
11Kirk CousinsQBWAS540604+7.4
12Carson WentzQBPHI440498+3.4
13Marcus MariotaQBTEN453501+3.1
14Tyrod TaylorQBBUF420506+3.1
15Aaron RodgersQBGB238275+1.2
16Philip RiversQBLAC575593+0.8
17Dak PrescottQBDAL490552+0.1
18Carson PalmerQBARI267290-0.2
19Jared GoffQBLA477510-0.5
20Jay CutlerQBMIA429455-3.5
21Derek CarrQBLV515544-3.9
22Joe FlaccoQBBAL549579-5.2
23Brett HundleyQBGB316366-5.9
24Trevor SiemianQBDEN349406-10.5
25Mitchell TrubiskyQBCHI330380-13.4
26Cam NewtonQBCAR492556-13.7
27Blake BortlesQBJAX523570-15.1
28Eli ManningQBNYG571608-15.6
29C.J. BeathardQBSF224254-16.8
30Andy DaltonQBCIN496545-19.2
31Jacoby BrissettQBIND469558-21.4
32DeShone KizerQBCLE476558-31.1

More 2017 NFL Quarterback Leaderboards

EPA per Dropback ACE per 100 Attempts Expected Completion % Success Rate Total Passing EPA Total QB EPA (Passing + Rushing) First-Down Rate per Dropback Explosive Pass Rate Negative-Play Rate Win Probability Added EPA per Dropback, Excluding Garbage Time NFL Passer Rating Completion % Yards per Attempt Adjusted Net Yards per Attempt Adjusted Yards per Attempt Net Yards per Attempt Yards per Completion Touchdown % Interception % TD:INT Ratio Sack % Passing Yards per Game Pass Attempts per Game Passing Yards Passing Touchdowns Completions Pass Attempts Interceptions Thrown Sacks Taken Passing First Downs 20+ Yard Completions 40+ Yard Completions Longest Completion 300-Yard Passing Games 4-Touchdown Games Wins as Starter Average Depth of Target Deep Attempt Rate Deep Completion % YAC per Completion Share of Yards Through the Air 3rd-Down Conversion Rate Red Zone Touchdown Rate Clutch EPA per Dropback Clutch Passer Rating Two-Minute Drill EPA per Dropback Game-Winning Drives 4th-Quarter Comebacks Quarterback Rushing Yards Quarterback Rushing EPA Scrambles QB Sneak Conversion Rate Touchdowns Responsible For Total Yards (Passing + Rushing) Turnovers Turnover Rate per Play

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