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2023 NFL ACE (Accuracy Compared to Expectation) Leaders

ACE counts completions minus the expected chance of completing each throw. The expected chance comes from a model of every NFL attempt over the last five seasons, using how far the ball travelled in the air, which third of the field it went to, down, distance, field position, a hit on the quarterback, roof and weather. QuarterbackStats.com's rating is built on the standard completion-percentage-over-expected idea (CPOE); we did not invent that idea.

How to read it. +10 means about ten more completions than an average passer would have made on the same throws. Throwaways and drops count against everyone the same way, because the play-by-play does not mark them.

The 2023 leaders: Dak Prescott (+28.9), Brock Purdy (+25.9), Tua Tagovailoa (+23.9).

ACE (Accuracy Compared to Expectation)

Minimum to rank: 14 pass attempts per team game (the NFL's minimum for passing rate leaders). 32 players.

RkPlayerPosTeamAttDropbacksACE
1Dak PrescottQBDAL590656+28.9
2Brock PurdyQBSF444486+25.9
3Tua TagovailoaQBMIA560603+23.9
4Josh AllenQBBUF579649+19.6
5Kirk CousinsQBMIN311329+19.5
6Derek CarrQBNO548588+14.5
7Patrick MahomesQBKC597672+14.1
8Russell WilsonQBDEN447524+12.7
9Lamar JacksonQBBAL457559+12.3
10Jake BrowningQBCIN243283+12.0
11Jared GoffQBDET605638+9.3
12Jordan LoveQBGB579631+7.5
13Trevor LawrenceQBJAX564640+6.3
14Joe BurrowQBCIN365402+5.5
15Jalen HurtsQBPHI538622+5.2
16C.J. StroudQBHOU499554+2.1
17Geno SmithQBSEA499546-0.3
18Justin HerbertQBLAC456516-0.5
19Baker MayfieldQBTB566636-1.9
20Will LevisQBTEN255290-2.7
21Kyler MurrayQBARI268301-3.8
22Desmond RidderQBATL388436-3.9
23Joshua DobbsQBARI417481-5.7
24Mac JonesQBNE345379-6.1
25Justin FieldsQBCHI370457-7.6
26Kenny PickettQBPIT324360-11.2
27Matthew StaffordQBLA521562-11.9
28Sam HowellQBWAS612709-12.8
29Aidan O'ConnellQBLV343366-13.8
30Zach WilsonQBNYJ368436-19.1
31Gardner MinshewQBIND490545-22.5
32Bryce YoungQBCAR527619-27.3

More 2023 NFL Quarterback Leaderboards

EPA per Dropback ACE per 100 Attempts Expected Completion % Success Rate Total Passing EPA Total QB EPA (Passing + Rushing) First-Down Rate per Dropback Explosive Pass Rate Negative-Play Rate Win Probability Added EPA per Dropback, Excluding Garbage Time NFL Passer Rating Completion % Yards per Attempt Adjusted Net Yards per Attempt Adjusted Yards per Attempt Net Yards per Attempt Yards per Completion Touchdown % Interception % TD:INT Ratio Sack % Passing Yards per Game Pass Attempts per Game Passing Yards Passing Touchdowns Completions Pass Attempts Interceptions Thrown Sacks Taken Passing First Downs 20+ Yard Completions 40+ Yard Completions Longest Completion 300-Yard Passing Games 4-Touchdown Games Wins as Starter Average Depth of Target Deep Attempt Rate Deep Completion % YAC per Completion Share of Yards Through the Air 3rd-Down Conversion Rate Red Zone Touchdown Rate Clutch EPA per Dropback Clutch Passer Rating Two-Minute Drill EPA per Dropback Game-Winning Drives 4th-Quarter Comebacks Quarterback Rushing Yards Quarterback Rushing EPA Scrambles QB Sneak Conversion Rate Touchdowns Responsible For Total Yards (Passing + Rushing) Turnovers Turnover Rate per Play

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