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2025 NFL ACE (Accuracy Compared to Expectation) Leaders

ACE counts completions minus the expected chance of completing each throw. The expected chance comes from a model of every NFL attempt over the last five seasons, using how far the ball travelled in the air, which third of the field it went to, down, distance, field position, a hit on the quarterback, roof and weather. QuarterbackStats.com's rating is built on the standard completion-percentage-over-expected idea (CPOE); we did not invent that idea.

How to read it. +10 means about ten more completions than an average passer would have made on the same throws. Throwaways and drops count against everyone the same way, because the play-by-play does not mark them.

The 2025 leaders: Drake Maye (+45.6), Dak Prescott (+22.4), Josh Allen (+21.3).

ACE (Accuracy Compared to Expectation)

Minimum to rank: 14 pass attempts per team game (the NFL's minimum for passing rate leaders). 33 players.

RkPlayerPosTeamAttDropbacksACE
1Drake MayeQBNE492601+45.6
2Dak PrescottQBDAL600654+22.4
3Josh AllenQBBUF460547+21.3
4Matthew StaffordQBLA597624+17.5
5Jordan LoveQBGB439483+17.5
6Brock PurdyQBSF284313+15.4
7Sam DarnoldQBSEA477514+14.7
8Jared GoffQBDET578619+14.2
9Daniel JonesQBIND384426+14.1
10Mac JonesQBSF289310+13.5
11Justin HerbertQBLAC512615+13.2
12Joe BurrowQBCIN259284+10.5
13Spencer RattlerQBNO257288+7.9
14Tyler ShoughQBNO327375+7.9
15Jalen HurtsQBPHI454524+5.2
16Tua TagovailoaQBMIA384423+4.9
17Jacoby BrissettQBARI485549+2.8
18Jaxson DartQBNYG339411+2.2
19Lamar JacksonQBBAL302366+2.1
20Geno SmithQBLV448519+1.2
21C.J. StroudQBHOU423468+0.5
22Patrick MahomesQBKC502586-0.3
23Aaron RodgersQBPIT497536-5.0
24Kirk CousinsQBATL269281-8.0
25Bryce YoungQBCAR478536-8.1
26J.J. McCarthyQBMIN243287-9.4
27Baker MayfieldQBTB543620-12.8
28Michael Penix Jr.QBATL276302-13.0
29Bo NixQBDEN612669-14.3
30Trevor LawrenceQBJAX560641-15.0
31Joe FlaccoQBCIN416434-18.3
32Caleb WilliamsQBCHI568633-27.0
33Cam WardQBTEN540615-28.6

More 2025 NFL Quarterback Leaderboards

EPA per Dropback ACE per 100 Attempts Expected Completion % Success Rate Total Passing EPA Total QB EPA (Passing + Rushing) First-Down Rate per Dropback Explosive Pass Rate Negative-Play Rate Win Probability Added EPA per Dropback, Excluding Garbage Time NFL Passer Rating Completion % Yards per Attempt Adjusted Net Yards per Attempt Adjusted Yards per Attempt Net Yards per Attempt Yards per Completion Touchdown % Interception % TD:INT Ratio Sack % Passing Yards per Game Pass Attempts per Game Passing Yards Passing Touchdowns Completions Pass Attempts Interceptions Thrown Sacks Taken Passing First Downs 20+ Yard Completions 40+ Yard Completions Longest Completion 300-Yard Passing Games 4-Touchdown Games Wins as Starter Average Depth of Target Deep Attempt Rate Deep Completion % YAC per Completion Share of Yards Through the Air 3rd-Down Conversion Rate Red Zone Touchdown Rate Clutch EPA per Dropback Clutch Passer Rating Two-Minute Drill EPA per Dropback Game-Winning Drives 4th-Quarter Comebacks Quarterback Rushing Yards Quarterback Rushing EPA Scrambles QB Sneak Conversion Rate Touchdowns Responsible For Total Yards (Passing + Rushing) Turnovers Turnover Rate per Play

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