Passer Rating vs EPA: Which Tells You More?
Why we rank quarterbacks by EPA per dropback, and what passer rating still gets right.
Read Article →2016 NFL Success Rate Leaders
The share of dropbacks with positive EPA, meaning the play left the offense better off than before it. We use the same rule in both leagues so the numbers compare.
How to read it. Around 45% is average for a starter; 50% is excellent.
The 2016 leaders: Matt Ryan (54.0%), Dak Prescott (52.7%), Kirk Cousins (52.6%).
Success Rate
Minimum to rank: 14 pass attempts per team game (the NFL's minimum for passing rate leaders). 30 players.
| Rk | Player | Pos | Team | Att | Dropbacks | Success |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Matt Ryan | QB | ATL | 534 | 587 | 54.0% |
| 2 | Dak Prescott | QB | DAL | 459 | 509 | 52.7% |
| 3 | Kirk Cousins | QB | WAS | 606 | 635 | 52.6% |
| 4 | Drew Brees | QB | NO | 673 | 696 | 51.3% |
| 5 | Tom Brady | QB | NE | 432 | 458 | 50.4% |
| 6 | Andrew Luck | QB | IND | 545 | 624 | 49.4% |
| 7 | Aaron Rodgers | QB | GB | 610 | 686 | 49.3% |
| 8 | Matthew Stafford | QB | DET | 594 | 653 | 49.0% |
| 9 | Jameis Winston | QB | TB | 567 | 630 | 48.9% |
| 10 | Ben Roethlisberger | QB | PIT | 509 | 526 | 48.7% |
| 11 | Andy Dalton | QB | CIN | 563 | 624 | 48.4% |
| 12 | Russell Wilson | QB | SEA | 546 | 619 | 48.1% |
| 13 | Sam Bradford | QB | MIN | 552 | 596 | 47.7% |
| 14 | Carson Palmer | QB | ARI | 597 | 639 | 47.4% |
| 15 | Marcus Mariota | QB | TEN | 451 | 494 | 47.4% |
| 16 | Alex Smith | QB | KC | 489 | 537 | 46.6% |
| 17 | Ryan Tannehill | QB | MIA | 389 | 430 | 46.5% |
| 18 | Philip Rivers | QB | LAC | 578 | 619 | 45.6% |
| 19 | Derek Carr | QB | LV | 560 | 591 | 45.5% |
| 20 | Brock Osweiler | QB | HOU | 510 | 550 | 45.5% |
| 21 | Tyrod Taylor | QB | BUF | 436 | 526 | 44.9% |
| 22 | Carson Wentz | QB | PHI | 607 | 657 | 44.7% |
| 23 | Eli Manning | QB | NYG | 598 | 622 | 44.2% |
| 24 | Trevor Siemian | QB | DEN | 486 | 530 | 43.8% |
| 25 | Blake Bortles | QB | JAX | 625 | 694 | 43.2% |
| 26 | Joe Flacco | QB | BAL | 672 | 707 | 43.1% |
| 27 | Colin Kaepernick | QB | SF | 331 | 401 | 42.6% |
| 28 | Ryan Fitzpatrick | QB | NYJ | 403 | 440 | 42.5% |
| 29 | Cam Newton | QB | CAR | 510 | 554 | 41.2% |
| 30 | Case Keenum | QB | LA | 322 | 353 | 39.4% |
More 2016 NFL Quarterback Leaderboards
EPA per Dropback ACE (Accuracy Compared to Expectation) ACE per 100 Attempts Expected Completion % Total Passing EPA Total QB EPA (Passing + Rushing) First-Down Rate per Dropback Explosive Pass Rate Negative-Play Rate Win Probability Added EPA per Dropback, Excluding Garbage Time NFL Passer Rating Completion % Yards per Attempt Adjusted Net Yards per Attempt Adjusted Yards per Attempt Net Yards per Attempt Yards per Completion Touchdown % Interception % TD:INT Ratio Sack % Passing Yards per Game Pass Attempts per Game Passing Yards Passing Touchdowns Completions Pass Attempts Interceptions Thrown Sacks Taken Passing First Downs 20+ Yard Completions 40+ Yard Completions Longest Completion 300-Yard Passing Games 4-Touchdown Games Wins as Starter Average Depth of Target Deep Attempt Rate Deep Completion % YAC per Completion Share of Yards Through the Air 3rd-Down Conversion Rate Red Zone Touchdown Rate Clutch EPA per Dropback Clutch Passer Rating Two-Minute Drill EPA per Dropback Game-Winning Drives 4th-Quarter Comebacks Quarterback Rushing Yards Quarterback Rushing EPA Scrambles QB Sneak Conversion Rate Touchdowns Responsible For Total Yards (Passing + Rushing) Turnovers Turnover Rate per Play
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QBS BLOG · PASSING QUESTIONS · MINDSET
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