2017 NFL Catch Rate Over Expected Leaders

Catch rate minus the expected catch rate on the same targets, from the ACE completion model. It credits receivers who catch hard balls.

The 2017 leaders: Dion Lewis (16.1%), Ted Ginn (15.8%), Danny Woodhead (13.5%).

Catch Rate Over Expected

Minimum to rank: 1.875 receptions per team game (the NFL's minimum for receiving rate leaders). 141 players.

Rk	Player	Pos	Team	Tgt	Rec	CROE
1	Dion Lewis	RB	NE	35	32	16.1%
2	Ted Ginn	WR	NO	70	53	15.8%
3	Danny Woodhead	RB	BAL	39	33	13.5%
4	Rex Burkhead	RB	NE	36	30	13.2%
5	Tyreek Hill	WR	KC	105	75	11.5%
6	JuJu Smith-Schuster	WR	PIT	79	58	11.2%
7	Hunter Henry	TE	LAC	62	45	11.2%
8	Kareem Hunt	RB	KC	63	53	11.1%
9	Matt Forte	RB	NYJ	45	37	10.9%
10	Austin Hooper	TE	ATL	65	49	10.8%
11	Ryan Grant	WR	WAS	65	45	9.8%
12	Kyle Juszczyk	RB	SF	42	33	9.8%
13	Duke Johnson	RB	CLE	93	74	9.5%
14	Trent Taylor	WR	SF	60	43	9.4%
15	DeMarco Murray	RB	TEN	47	39	9.3%
16	Allen Hurns	WR	JAX	56	39	9.1%
17	Alvin Kamara	RB	NO	100	81	9.0%
18	Golden Tate	WR	DET	120	92	8.9%
19	Joe Mixon	RB	CIN	34	30	8.9%
20	Stefon Diggs	WR	MIN	95	64	8.7%
21	Benjamin Watson	TE	BAL	79	61	8.6%
22	Adam Humphries	WR	TB	83	61	8.6%
23	Lamar Miller	RB	HOU	45	36	8.1%
24	Michael Thomas	WR	NO	149	104	8.0%
25	Tyler Lockett	WR	SEA	71	45	8.0%
26	Danny Amendola	WR	NE	86	61	7.8%
27	Shane Vereen	RB	NYG	53	44	7.7%
28	Cordarrelle Patterson	WR	LV	42	31	7.7%
29	Rob Gronkowski	TE	NE	105	69	7.4%
30	James White	RB	NE	72	56	7.3%
31	J.D. McKissic	RB	SEA	46	34	7.2%
32	Mohamed Sanu	WR	ATL	96	67	7.1%
33	Sterling Shepard	WR	NYG	84	59	7.1%
34	Doug Baldwin	WR	SEA	116	75	7.0%
35	Jason Witten	TE	DAL	87	63	7.0%
36	Nelson Agholor	WR	PHI	95	62	7.0%
37	Travis Kelce	TE	KC	122	83	6.9%
38	Kyle Rudolph	TE	MIN	81	57	6.8%
39	Robert Woods	WR	LA	85	56	6.5%
40	Devontae Booker	RB	DEN	38	30	6.1%
41	Antonio Brown	WR	PIT	163	101	6.0%
42	Chris Godwin Jr.	WR	TB	55	34	6.0%
43	Devonta Freeman	RB	ATL	47	36	6.0%
44	Eric Decker	WR	TEN	83	54	5.9%
45	Mark Ingram	RB	NO	71	58	5.8%
46	Charles Sims	RB	TB	47	35	5.8%
47	Zach Ertz	TE	PHI	110	74	5.7%
48	Adam Thielen	WR	MIN	142	91	5.7%
49	Le'Veon Bell	RB	PIT	107	86	5.3%
50	Randall Cobb	WR	GB	92	66	5.2%
51	Jack Doyle	TE	IND	108	80	5.1%
52	George Kittle	TE	SF	63	43	5.0%
53	Terrance Williams	WR	DAL	78	53	4.9%
54	Cooper Kupp	WR	LA	94	62	4.7%
55	Tyrell Williams	WR	LAC	69	43	4.6%
56	Vernon Davis	TE	WAS	69	43	4.5%
57	LeSean McCoy	RB	BUF	77	59	4.4%
58	Jermaine Gresham	TE	ARI	46	33	4.3%
59	Kenny Stills	WR	MIA	105	58	4.2%
60	Delanie Walker	TE	TEN	111	74	4.2%
61	Martavis Bryant	WR	PIT	84	50	4.1%
62	Rishard Matthews	WR	TEN	87	53	4.1%
63	Seth Roberts	WR	LV	65	43	4.0%
64	Taylor Gabriel	WR	ATL	51	33	4.0%
65	Larry Fitzgerald	WR	ARI	161	109	3.8%
66	Julio Jones	WR	ATL	148	88	3.7%
67	Jarvis Landry	WR	MIA	161	112	3.6%
68	Kelvin Benjamin	WR	CAR	77	47	3.5%
69	Austin Seferian-Jenkins	TE	NYJ	74	50	3.3%
70	Ed Dickson	TE	CAR	48	30	3.3%
71	Brandin Cooks	WR	NE	114	65	3.2%
72	Davante Adams	WR	GB	117	74	3.2%
73	Martellus Bennett	TE	GB	44	30	3.2%
74	Tyler Kroft	TE	CIN	62	42	3.1%
75	Keenan Allen	WR	LAC	159	102	3.1%
76	Deonte Thompson	WR	BUF	69	38	3.0%
77	Javorius Allen	RB	BAL	60	46	3.0%
78	DeSean Jackson	WR	TB	90	50	2.8%
79	DeVante Parker	WR	MIA	96	57	2.6%
80	Jesse James	TE	PIT	63	43	2.5%
81	Cameron Brate	TE	TB	77	48	2.3%
82	Albert Wilson	WR	KC	62	42	2.1%
83	Marvin Jones	WR	DET	107	61	2.1%
84	Julius Thomas	TE	MIA	62	41	2.0%
85	Jermaine Kearse	WR	NYJ	102	65	1.8%
86	Tarik Cohen	RB	CHI	71	53	1.8%
87	Marqise Lee	WR	JAX	96	56	1.7%
88	T.J. Jones	WR	DET	49	30	1.6%
89	Paul Richardson	WR	SEA	80	44	1.5%
90	Jared Cook	TE	LV	86	54	1.4%
91	Chris Thompson	RB	WAS	54	39	1.3%
92	Charles Clay	TE	BUF	74	49	1.1%
93	Todd Gurley	RB	LA	87	64	0.8%
94	Jordy Nelson	WR	GB	88	53	0.7%
95	Devin Funchess	WR	CAR	111	63	0.6%
96	Jamison Crowder	WR	WAS	103	66	0.4%
97	Sammy Watkins	WR	LA	70	39	0.4%
98	Demaryius Thomas	WR	DEN	140	83	0.3%
99	DeAndre Washington	RB	LV	45	34	0.2%
100	Leonard Fournette	RB	JAX	48	36	-0.1%