2026 NFL Catch Rate Over Expected Leaders

Catch rate minus the expected catch rate on the same targets, from the ACE completion model. It credits receivers who catch hard balls.

The 2026 leaders: Ty Johnson (28.3%), Keon Coleman (26.0%), Kalif Raymond (22.3%).

Catch Rate Over Expected

Minimum to rank: 1.875 receptions per team game (the NFL's minimum for receiving rate leaders). 131 players.

Rk	Player	Pos	Team	Tgt	Rec	CROE
1	Ty Johnson	RB	BUF	12	12	28.3%
2	Keon Coleman	WR	BUF	24	19	26.0%
3	Kalif Raymond	WR	CHI	29	26	22.3%
4	Tyler Allgeier	RB	ARI	14	13	22.1%
5	Rachaad White	RB	WAS	15	14	21.4%
6	Mack Hollins	WR	NE	20	15	19.5%
7	Justin Jefferson	WR	MIN	24	19	17.6%
8	Jaylin Noel	WR	HOU	21	17	17.4%
9	Bhayshul Tuten	RB	JAX	14	13	17.4%
10	Tyler Higbee	TE	LA	29	24	17.0%
11	T.J. Hockenson	TE	MIN	27	23	16.0%
12	Jakobi Meyers	WR	JAX	28	20	14.4%
13	Mike Evans	WR	SF	39	27	14.4%
14	Tyler Warren	TE	IND	36	30	13.9%
15	Dalton Kincaid	TE	BUF	29	23	13.9%
16	Nico Collins	WR	HOU	30	22	13.7%
17	Rashod Bateman	WR	BAL	22	16	13.0%
18	Jaxon Smith-Njigba	WR	SEA	66	49	12.7%
19	Javonte Williams	RB	DAL	22	19	12.7%
20	Chase Brown	RB	CIN	28	24	12.5%
21	Tre Tucker	WR	LV	35	24	12.5%
22	Rashee Rice	WR	KC	17	13	12.4%
23	Ladd McConkey	WR	LAC	18	13	12.1%
24	Antonio Williams	WR	WAS	26	18	12.1%
25	Mike Gesicki	TE	CIN	17	12	11.8%
26	Hunter Henry	TE	NE	24	19	11.7%
27	Chris Olave	WR	NO	61	43	11.6%
28	Brenton Strange	TE	JAX	33	26	11.6%
29	Tommy Tremble	TE	CAR	19	15	10.9%
30	Zay Flowers	WR	BAL	42	32	10.8%
31	Quinshon Judkins	RB	CLE	20	18	10.7%
32	Michael Mayer	TE	LV	34	28	10.3%
33	Tyjae Spears	RB	TEN	17	15	10.0%
34	Romeo Doubs	WR	NE	24	14	9.7%
35	RJ Harvey	RB	DEN	26	23	9.3%
36	Garrett Wilson	WR	NYJ	48	35	9.1%
37	Puka Nacua	WR	LA	52	37	8.7%
38	Deebo Samuel Sr.	WR	SF	20	16	8.6%
39	Jameson Williams	WR	DET	29	18	8.5%
40	Tetairoa McMillan	WR	CAR	48	32	8.5%
41	D'Andre Swift	RB	CHI	21	18	8.5%
42	Germie Bernard	WR	PIT	32	24	8.3%
43	Trey McBride	TE	ARI	65	49	8.0%
44	Ja'Marr Chase	WR	CIN	38	27	8.0%
45	Xavier Worthy	WR	KC	29	21	7.8%
46	Greg Dulcich	TE	MIA	17	13	7.8%
47	Woody Marks	RB	HOU	16	13	7.7%
48	Sam LaPorta	TE	DET	37	27	7.5%
49	Chris Godwin Jr.	WR	TB	29	23	7.5%
50	Dalton Schultz	TE	HOU	37	28	7.5%
51	Chig Okonkwo	TE	WAS	20	15	7.1%
52	DeMario Douglas	WR	NE	30	20	7.1%
53	Travis Kelce	TE	KC	27	20	7.1%
54	Luther Burden III	WR	CHI	43	31	7.0%
55	George Kittle	TE	SF	36	26	6.9%
56	CeeDee Lamb	WR	DAL	69	48	6.9%
57	Juwan Johnson	TE	NO	34	25	6.9%
58	Carnell Tate	WR	TEN	44	29	6.8%
59	Davante Adams	WR	LA	49	30	6.3%
60	Malik Nabers	WR	NYG	61	41	6.2%
61	Jalen Coker	WR	CAR	35	24	6.1%
62	Kyren Williams	RB	LA	39	30	6.1%
63	Jahmyr Gibbs	RB	DET	34	27	6.0%
64	Pat Freiermuth	TE	PIT	29	21	5.9%
65	Christian McCaffrey	RB	SF	35	28	5.5%
66	DeVonta Smith	WR	PHI	41	26	5.1%
67	Dohnte Meyers	WR	CIN	18	13	5.0%
68	George Pickens	WR	DAL	52	33	4.9%
69	Kendrick Bourne	WR	ARI	30	22	4.9%
70	Tee Higgins	WR	CIN	43	27	4.4%
71	Brock Bowers	TE	LV	43	28	4.2%
72	Kayshon Boutte	WR	HOU	21	14	3.9%
73	Bucky Irving	RB	TB	21	17	3.7%
74	Roman Wilson	WR	PIT	25	14	3.6%
75	Dontayvion Wicks	WR	PHI	32	19	3.6%
76	Drake London	WR	ATL	46	31	3.5%
77	Rhamondre Stevenson	RB	NE	19	15	3.4%
78	Rome Odunze	WR	CHI	33	20	3.3%
79	Christian Watson	WR	GB	48	29	3.0%
80	Devaughn Vele	WR	NO	43	28	2.6%
81	Malik Washington	WR	MIA	36	23	2.6%
82	Jerry Jeudy	WR	CLE	19	12	2.4%
83	Amon-Ra St. Brown	WR	DET	57	37	2.2%
84	DJ Moore	WR	BUF	20	12	1.5%
85	Dallas Goedert	TE	PHI	24	17	1.4%
86	Keaton Mitchell	RB	LAC	15	12	1.3%
87	Stefon Diggs	WR	WAS	38	24	1.2%
88	Mark Andrews	TE	BAL	33	23	1.2%
89	Cooper Kupp	WR	SEA	25	16	1.1%
90	Isaiah Likely	TE	NYG	59	39	1.0%
91	Alvin Kamara	RB	NO	20	15	1.0%
92	Jake Ferguson	TE	DAL	24	17	0.4%
93	Tre Harris	WR	LAC	25	15	0.3%
94	Parker Washington	WR	JAX	46	26	0.3%
95	Kyle Pitts	TE	ATL	22	15	0.1%
96	Harold Fannin Jr.	TE	CLE	30	19	-0.3%
97	Ashton Jeanty	RB	LV	36	26	-0.4%
98	Wan'Dale Robinson	WR	TEN	37	25	-0.4%
99	Tucker Kraft	TE	GB	37	25	-0.4%
100	Matthew Golden	WR	GB	57	30	-0.5%