2018 NFL Catch Rate Over Expected Leaders

Catch rate minus the expected catch rate on the same targets, from the ACE completion model. It credits receivers who catch hard balls.

The 2018 leaders: Tyler Lockett (26.5%), Michael Thomas (20.3%), Phillip Dorsett (16.3%).

Catch Rate Over Expected

Minimum to rank: 1.875 receptions per team game (the NFL's minimum for receiving rate leaders). 141 players.

Rk	Player	Pos	Team	Tgt	Rec	CROE
1	Tyler Lockett	WR	SEA	70	57	26.5%
2	Michael Thomas	WR	NO	147	125	20.3%
3	Phillip Dorsett	WR	NE	42	32	16.3%
4	Will Fuller	WR	HOU	45	32	15.9%
5	Benjamin Watson	TE	NO	46	35	15.8%
6	Rashard Higgins	WR	CLE	53	39	15.8%
7	Austin Hooper	TE	ATL	88	71	15.8%
8	O.J. Howard	TE	TB	48	34	13.6%
9	Alshon Jeffery	WR	PHI	92	65	12.8%
10	Adam Thielen	WR	MIN	153	113	12.3%
11	DeAndre Hopkins	WR	HOU	163	115	12.3%
12	Mike Williams	WR	LAC	66	43	12.0%
13	Jacquizz Rodgers	RB	TB	45	38	11.1%
14	Kyle Rudolph	TE	MIN	82	64	11.1%
15	Christian McCaffrey	RB	CAR	124	107	11.0%
16	Dallas Goedert	TE	PHI	44	33	11.0%
17	Dion Lewis	RB	TEN	67	59	10.9%
18	Danny Amendola	WR	MIA	79	59	10.7%
19	Taylor Gabriel	WR	CHI	93	67	10.7%
20	Julio Jones	WR	ATL	170	113	10.7%
21	Chris Herndon	TE	NYJ	56	39	10.5%
22	Rob Gronkowski	TE	NE	72	47	10.5%
23	Jesse James	TE	PIT	39	30	10.4%
24	Sammy Watkins	WR	KC	55	40	10.3%
25	Zach Ertz	TE	PHI	156	116	10.2%
26	Doug Baldwin	WR	SEA	73	50	10.1%
27	Cooper Kupp	WR	LA	55	40	10.0%
28	Cole Beasley	WR	DAL	87	65	9.9%
29	Emmanuel Sanders	WR	DEN	98	71	9.8%
30	Ryan Switzer	WR	PIT	44	36	9.8%
31	Amari Cooper	WR	DAL	107	75	9.5%
32	Brandin Cooks	WR	LA	117	80	9.4%
33	Jalen Richard	RB	LV	81	68	9.4%
34	Javorius Allen	RB	BAL	43	35	9.3%
35	Mike Evans	WR	TB	138	86	9.2%
36	Tyreek Hill	WR	KC	137	87	9.2%
37	Jordy Nelson	WR	LV	88	63	8.7%
38	Tarik Cohen	RB	CHI	91	71	8.6%
39	Mark Andrews	TE	BAL	50	34	8.6%
40	Ian Thomas	TE	CAR	49	36	8.6%
41	Travis Kelce	TE	KC	150	103	8.3%
42	Calvin Ridley	WR	ATL	92	64	8.2%
43	Theo Riddick	RB	DET	74	61	7.7%
44	Keenan Allen	WR	LAC	136	97	7.7%
45	Seth Roberts	WR	LV	64	45	7.3%
46	Tyler Boyd	WR	CIN	108	76	7.3%
47	Taywan Taylor	WR	TEN	56	37	6.7%
48	Mohamed Sanu	WR	ATL	94	66	6.6%
49	Robert Woods	WR	LA	130	86	6.6%
50	Davante Adams	WR	GB	169	111	6.6%
51	Jarius Wright	WR	CAR	59	43	6.5%
52	Kyle Juszczyk	RB	SF	41	30	6.4%
53	Nelson Agholor	WR	PHI	97	64	6.4%
54	Chris Hogan	WR	NE	55	35	6.0%
55	Chester Rogers	WR	IND	72	53	6.0%
56	Kenny Stills	WR	MIA	64	37	5.8%
57	Duke Johnson	RB	CLE	62	47	5.7%
58	Trey Burton	TE	CHI	76	54	5.5%
59	Tyrell Williams	WR	LAC	65	41	5.5%
60	Kerryon Johnson	RB	DET	39	32	5.4%
61	DeSean Jackson	WR	TB	74	41	5.4%
62	Stefon Diggs	WR	MIN	149	102	5.4%
63	Adam Humphries	WR	TB	105	76	5.2%
64	Ezekiel Elliott	RB	DAL	95	77	5.0%
65	Chris Godwin Jr.	WR	TB	95	59	4.9%
66	Nyheim Hines	RB	IND	81	63	4.8%
67	Demaryius Thomas	WR	DEN	89	59	4.8%
68	Mike Davis	RB	SEA	42	34	4.7%
69	Alvin Kamara	RB	NO	105	81	4.6%
70	Julian Edelman	WR	NE	108	74	4.4%
71	Jared Cook	TE	LV	101	68	4.2%
72	DJ Moore	WR	CAR	82	55	3.9%
73	Ryan Grant	WR	IND	52	35	3.8%
74	JuJu Smith-Schuster	WR	PIT	166	111	3.7%
75	DaeSean Hamilton	WR	DEN	46	30	3.7%
76	Odell Beckham Jr.	WR	NYG	124	77	3.5%
77	Dede Westbrook	WR	JAX	101	66	3.4%
78	T.Y. Hilton	WR	IND	120	76	3.3%
79	Bruce Ellington	WR	DET	42	31	3.1%
80	Curtis Samuel	WR	CAR	65	39	2.9%
81	C.J. Uzomah	TE	CIN	64	43	2.7%
82	Dalvin Cook	RB	MIN	49	40	2.2%
83	Evan Engram	TE	NYG	64	45	2.2%
84	Joe Mixon	RB	CIN	55	43	2.2%
85	Anthony Miller	WR	CHI	54	33	1.9%
86	A.J. Green	WR	CIN	77	46	1.9%
87	Melvin Gordon	RB	LAC	66	50	1.6%
88	Antonio Brown	WR	PIT	168	104	1.6%
89	Vance McDonald	TE	PIT	72	50	1.5%
90	Josh Doctson	WR	WAS	78	44	1.4%
91	Gerald Everett	TE	LA	50	33	1.4%
92	Kenyan Drake	RB	MIA	73	53	1.3%
93	George Kittle	TE	SF	136	88	1.1%
94	Chris Thompson	RB	WAS	55	41	1.0%
95	Devontae Booker	RB	DEN	51	38	0.9%
96	Josh Gordon	WR	NE	71	41	0.8%
97	Saquon Barkley	RB	NYG	121	91	0.7%
98	Cameron Brate	TE	TB	49	30	0.7%
99	Kendrick Bourne	WR	SF	67	42	0.7%
100	Allen Robinson	WR	CHI	94	55	0.5%