2019 NFL Catch Rate Over Expected Leaders

Catch rate minus the expected catch rate on the same targets, from the ACE completion model. It credits receivers who catch hard balls.

The 2019 leaders: Tyler Lockett (17.5%), DeAndre Washington (15.0%), Kyle Rudolph (14.7%).

Catch Rate Over Expected

Minimum to rank: 1.875 receptions per team game (the NFL's minimum for receiving rate leaders). 155 players.

Rk	Player	Pos	Team	Tgt	Rec	CROE
1	Tyler Lockett	WR	SEA	110	82	17.5%
2	DeAndre Washington	RB	LV	41	36	15.0%
3	Kyle Rudolph	TE	MIN	48	39	14.7%
4	Michael Thomas	WR	NO	185	149	14.5%
5	Ryan Griffin	TE	NYJ	41	34	13.9%
6	Adam Humphries	WR	TEN	47	37	13.4%
7	Hayden Hurst	TE	BAL	39	30	12.5%
8	George Kittle	TE	SF	107	85	12.4%
9	Allen Lazard	WR	GB	52	35	12.4%
10	Austin Hooper	TE	ATL	97	75	12.1%
11	Austin Ekeler	RB	LAC	108	92	11.8%
12	James Conner	RB	PIT	38	34	11.6%
13	Tyler Higbee	TE	LA	89	69	11.4%
14	Blake Jarwin	TE	DAL	41	31	11.1%
15	Le'Veon Bell	RB	NYJ	78	66	11.0%
16	Will Fuller	WR	HOU	71	49	11.0%
17	Jalen Richard	RB	LV	43	36	11.0%
18	Hunter Henry	TE	LAC	76	55	10.9%
19	Calvin Ridley	WR	ATL	93	63	10.7%
20	Jamaal Williams	RB	GB	45	39	10.7%
21	Kenny Stills	WR	HOU	55	40	10.3%
22	Jason Witten	TE	DAL	83	63	10.2%
23	Royce Freeman	RB	DEN	50	43	10.2%
24	Chris Godwin Jr.	WR	TB	121	86	9.8%
25	Darren Waller	TE	LV	117	90	9.8%
26	Kareem Hunt	RB	CLE	44	37	9.6%
27	Marvin Jones	WR	DET	91	62	9.4%
28	Travis Kelce	TE	KC	136	97	9.4%
29	Keenan Allen	WR	LAC	149	104	9.3%
30	Kaden Smith	TE	NYG	42	31	9.1%
31	Devonta Freeman	RB	ATL	70	59	9.1%
32	Stefon Diggs	WR	MIN	94	63	9.1%
33	Jonnu Smith	TE	TEN	44	35	8.8%
34	Kelvin Harmon	WR	WAS	44	30	8.6%
35	Sterling Shepard	WR	NYG	83	57	8.4%
36	Tyreek Hill	WR	KC	89	58	8.3%
37	Tyrell Williams	WR	LV	64	42	8.3%
38	John Brown	WR	BUF	115	72	8.1%
39	Damien Williams	RB	KC	37	30	7.9%
40	Miles Sanders	RB	PHI	63	50	7.3%
41	Jaylen Samuels	RB	PIT	57	47	7.2%
42	Kendrick Bourne	WR	SF	44	30	6.9%
43	Amari Cooper	WR	DAL	119	79	6.9%
44	Allen Hurns	WR	MIA	47	32	6.8%
45	DeAndre Hopkins	WR	HOU	150	104	6.6%
46	Emmanuel Sanders	WR	SF	97	66	6.6%
47	Alvin Kamara	RB	NO	97	81	6.5%
48	Irv Smith	TE	MIN	47	36	6.3%
49	Cooper Kupp	WR	LA	134	94	6.3%
50	Christian McCaffrey	RB	CAR	142	116	6.3%
51	Dalvin Cook	RB	MIN	63	53	6.1%
52	Terry McLaurin	WR	WAS	93	58	6.0%
53	Jared Cook	TE	NO	65	43	5.8%
54	Tyler Eifert	TE	CIN	63	43	5.7%
55	Hunter Renfrow	WR	LV	71	49	5.5%
56	James White	RB	NE	95	72	5.4%
57	T.Y. Hilton	WR	IND	68	45	5.0%
58	Mark Andrews	TE	BAL	98	64	5.0%
59	Deebo Samuel Sr.	WR	SF	81	57	4.9%
60	Corey Davis	WR	TEN	69	43	4.6%
61	Bisi Johnson	WR	MIN	45	31	4.6%
62	Willie Snead	WR	BAL	46	31	4.6%
63	David Johnson	RB	ARI	47	36	4.5%
64	Dare Ogunbowale	RB	TB	46	35	4.3%
65	A.J. Brown	WR	TEN	84	52	4.3%
66	Marquise Brown	WR	BAL	71	46	4.3%
67	Nick Boyle	TE	BAL	43	31	4.3%
68	Darren Fells	TE	HOU	48	34	4.0%
69	Davante Adams	WR	GB	127	83	4.0%
70	DJ Moore	WR	CAR	135	87	4.0%
71	Mike Williams	WR	LAC	90	49	3.8%
72	Joe Mixon	RB	CIN	45	35	3.8%
73	Randall Cobb	WR	DAL	83	55	3.7%
74	Mike Evans	WR	TB	118	67	3.6%
75	Julian Edelman	WR	NE	153	100	3.6%
76	J.D. McKissic	RB	DET	42	34	3.6%
77	Julio Jones	WR	ATL	157	99	3.5%
78	Adam Thielen	WR	MIN	48	30	3.5%
79	Damiere Byrd	WR	ARI	46	32	3.4%
80	Albert Wilson	WR	MIA	62	43	3.4%
81	Allen Robinson	WR	CHI	154	98	3.3%
82	Jacob Hollister	TE	SEA	59	41	3.3%
83	Darius Slayton	WR	NYG	84	48	3.1%
84	DJ Chark	WR	JAX	118	73	2.8%
85	DK Metcalf	WR	SEA	100	58	2.4%
86	Zach Ertz	TE	PHI	135	88	2.4%
87	Tarik Cohen	RB	CHI	104	79	2.1%
88	Latavius Murray	RB	NO	43	34	1.7%
89	Jamison Crowder	WR	NYJ	122	78	1.7%
90	Demaryius Thomas	WR	NYJ	58	36	1.6%
91	Mohamed Sanu	WR	NE	89	59	1.6%
92	Larry Fitzgerald	WR	ARI	109	75	1.6%
93	Ronald Jones	RB	TB	40	31	1.5%
94	Dallas Goedert	TE	PHI	87	58	1.5%
95	Robert Woods	WR	LA	139	90	1.5%
96	Chris Carson	RB	SEA	47	37	1.4%
97	Brandin Cooks	WR	LA	72	42	1.3%
98	Aaron Jones	RB	GB	68	49	1.2%
99	Greg Olsen	TE	CAR	82	52	1.0%
100	O.J. Howard	TE	TB	53	34	1.0%