2025 NFL Catch Rate Over Expected Leaders

Catch rate minus the expected catch rate on the same targets, from the ACE completion model. It credits receivers who catch hard balls.

The 2025 leaders: Stefon Diggs (19.3%), Rhamondre Stevenson (17.5%), George Kittle (17.4%).

Catch Rate Over Expected

Minimum to rank: 1.875 receptions per team game (the NFL's minimum for receiving rate leaders). 142 players.

Rk	Player	Pos	Team	Tgt	Rec	CROE
1	Stefon Diggs	WR	NE	102	85	19.3%
2	Rhamondre Stevenson	RB	NE	37	32	17.5%
3	George Kittle	TE	SF	69	57	17.4%
4	Kayshon Boutte	WR	NE	46	33	16.9%
5	Sam LaPorta	TE	DET	49	40	16.1%
6	Dalton Kincaid	TE	BUF	49	39	15.8%
7	Jalen Coker	WR	CAR	43	33	14.2%
8	Puka Nacua	WR	LA	166	129	14.1%
9	Omarion Hampton	RB	LAC	35	32	13.6%
10	Mack Hollins	WR	NE	65	46	13.1%
11	Luther Burden III	WR	CHI	60	47	12.8%
12	Kenny Gainwell	RB	PIT	85	73	12.5%
13	Ricky Pearsall	WR	SF	53	36	12.4%
14	Gunnar Helm	TE	TEN	55	44	12.3%
15	Jaxon Smith-Njigba	WR	SEA	163	119	12.0%
16	Noah Fant	TE	CIN	41	34	11.7%
17	Tyjae Spears	RB	TEN	50	45	11.7%
18	Christian Watson	WR	GB	55	35	11.3%
19	Rachaad White	RB	TB	45	40	11.0%
20	Zay Flowers	WR	BAL	118	86	11.0%
21	Jake Ferguson	TE	DAL	102	82	10.4%
22	Jaylen Warren	RB	PIT	45	40	10.4%
23	Oronde Gadsden II	TE	LAC	69	49	9.8%
24	Alvin Kamara	RB	NO	39	33	9.5%
25	Dalton Schultz	TE	HOU	106	82	9.3%
26	Juwan Johnson	TE	NO	102	77	9.1%
27	Dawson Knox	TE	BUF	49	36	9.1%
28	George Pickens	WR	DAL	137	93	8.9%
29	Brenton Strange	TE	JAX	60	46	8.9%
30	Kyle Pitts	TE	ATL	118	88	8.9%
31	Marvin Mims Jr.	WR	DEN	51	37	8.7%
32	Kendrick Bourne	WR	SF	53	37	8.6%
33	Colby Parkinson	TE	LA	56	43	8.5%
34	Sterling Shepard	WR	TB	53	39	8.5%
35	Ryan Flournoy	WR	DAL	56	40	8.4%
36	Terry McLaurin	WR	WAS	60	38	8.3%
37	James Cook	RB	BUF	40	33	8.2%
38	DeVonta Smith	WR	PHI	113	77	8.0%
39	Pat Freiermuth	TE	PIT	54	41	8.0%
40	Trey McBride	TE	ARI	169	126	7.9%
41	Colston Loveland	TE	CHI	82	58	7.9%
42	TreVeyon Henderson	RB	NE	42	35	7.7%
43	AJ Barner	TE	SEA	68	52	7.7%
44	Brock Bowers	TE	LV	86	64	7.6%
45	Marquise Brown	WR	KC	74	49	7.3%
46	Dallas Goedert	TE	PHI	82	60	7.3%
47	Romeo Doubs	WR	GB	85	55	7.2%
48	Jahmyr Gibbs	RB	DET	94	77	7.1%
49	T.J. Hockenson	TE	MIN	66	51	7.0%
50	JuJu Smith-Schuster	WR	KC	45	33	6.9%
51	Jonathan Taylor	RB	IND	55	46	6.8%
52	Christian McCaffrey	RB	SF	129	102	6.6%
53	Jameson Williams	WR	DET	102	65	6.5%
54	Jake Tonges	TE	SF	46	34	6.5%
55	RJ Harvey	RB	DEN	58	47	6.5%
56	Khalil Shakir	WR	BUF	95	72	6.4%
57	Tucker Kraft	TE	GB	44	32	6.3%
58	Michael Pittman	WR	IND	111	80	5.8%
59	Zach Ertz	TE	WAS	72	50	5.3%
60	Hunter Henry	TE	NE	87	60	5.3%
61	Tony Pollard	RB	TEN	41	33	5.2%
62	Jaylen Waddle	WR	MIA	100	64	5.0%
63	CeeDee Lamb	WR	DAL	117	75	4.8%
64	Jakobi Meyers	WR	JAX	110	75	4.6%
65	Tee Higgins	WR	CIN	98	59	4.6%
66	Dylan Sampson	RB	CLE	40	33	4.6%
67	Chase Brown	RB	CIN	88	69	4.3%
68	Alec Pierce	WR	IND	84	47	4.2%
69	Amon-Ra St. Brown	WR	DET	172	117	3.9%
70	Josh Downs	WR	IND	88	58	3.9%
71	Deebo Samuel Sr.	WR	WAS	99	72	3.9%
72	Keon Coleman	WR	BUF	59	38	3.9%
73	A.J. Brown	WR	PHI	121	78	3.8%
74	Chris Olave	WR	NO	156	100	3.7%
75	Tyrone Tracy Jr.	RB	NYG	48	36	3.7%
76	Mark Andrews	TE	BAL	70	48	3.6%
77	Troy Franklin	WR	DEN	104	65	3.6%
78	Travis Kelce	TE	KC	108	76	3.6%
79	Malik Washington	WR	MIA	65	46	3.3%
80	Bijan Robinson	RB	ATL	103	79	3.2%
81	Josh Jacobs	RB	GB	44	36	3.2%
82	Ja'Marr Chase	WR	CIN	185	125	3.0%
83	Rashid Shaheed	WR	NO	92	59	2.9%
84	Rico Dowdle	RB	CAR	50	39	2.9%
85	De'Von Achane	RB	MIA	85	67	2.9%
86	Keenan Allen	WR	LAC	122	81	2.8%
87	Michael Wilson	WR	ARI	126	78	2.8%
88	Ladd McConkey	WR	LAC	106	66	2.7%
89	Cade Otton	TE	TB	81	59	2.3%
90	Parker Washington	WR	JAX	95	58	1.9%
91	Wan'Dale Robinson	WR	NYG	140	92	1.9%
92	Michael Mayer	TE	LV	50	35	1.8%
93	Harold Fannin Jr.	TE	CLE	107	72	1.7%
94	Kyren Williams	RB	LA	50	36	1.3%
95	Courtland Sutton	WR	DEN	124	74	1.3%
96	Chig Okonkwo	TE	TEN	79	56	1.2%
97	Darius Slayton	WR	NYG	63	37	0.9%
98	Jayden Higgins	WR	HOU	68	41	0.9%
99	John Metchie III	WR	NYJ	48	33	0.9%
100	Breece Hall	RB	NYJ	48	36	0.8%