2021 NFL Catch Rate Over Expected Leaders

Catch rate minus the expected catch rate on the same targets, from the ACE completion model. It credits receivers who catch hard balls.

The 2021 leaders: James Conner (18.7%), Christian McCaffrey (18.2%), Durham Smythe (16.4%).

Catch Rate Over Expected

Minimum to rank: 1.875 receptions per team game (the NFL's minimum for receiving rate leaders). 152 players.

Rk	Player	Pos	Team	Tgt	Rec	CROE
1	James Conner	RB	ARI	39	37	18.7%
2	Christian McCaffrey	RB	CAR	41	37	18.2%
3	Durham Smythe	TE	MIA	41	34	16.4%
4	AJ Dillon	RB	GB	37	34	15.2%
5	Albert Okwuegbunam	TE	DEN	40	33	14.0%
6	Hunter Renfrow	WR	LV	128	103	13.3%
7	Christian Kirk	WR	ARI	103	77	12.9%
8	Kendrick Bourne	WR	NE	70	55	12.9%
9	Cedrick Wilson Jr.	WR	DAL	61	45	12.7%
10	Anthony Firkser	TE	TEN	43	34	12.6%
11	Tyler Lockett	WR	SEA	107	73	12.6%
12	Davante Adams	WR	GB	169	123	12.2%
13	Joe Mixon	RB	CIN	48	42	12.0%
14	Quez Watkins	WR	PHI	62	43	11.9%
15	Devontae Booker	RB	NYG	45	40	11.7%
16	Cooper Kupp	WR	LA	191	145	11.1%
17	Darrel Williams	RB	KC	57	47	11.1%
18	David Montgomery	RB	CHI	51	42	11.0%
19	Amon-Ra St. Brown	WR	DET	119	90	11.0%
20	Dallas Goedert	TE	PHI	76	56	10.9%
21	Byron Pringle	WR	KC	60	42	10.2%
22	George Kittle	TE	SF	94	71	10.1%
23	Brandon Bolden	RB	NE	49	41	9.9%
24	Tony Pollard	RB	DAL	46	39	9.6%
25	Gerald Everett	TE	SEA	63	48	9.5%
26	Chris Godwin Jr.	WR	TB	127	98	9.5%
27	Pat Freiermuth	TE	PIT	79	60	9.1%
28	Zay Jones	WR	LV	70	47	9.0%
29	C.J. Uzomah	TE	CIN	63	49	9.0%
30	Nick Westbrook-Ikhine	WR	TEN	57	38	9.0%
31	Noah Fant	TE	DEN	90	68	8.9%
32	Rondale Moore	WR	ARI	64	54	8.8%
33	Dalton Schultz	TE	DAL	104	78	8.7%
34	Aaron Jones	RB	GB	65	52	8.6%
35	Michael Pittman	WR	IND	129	88	8.3%
36	Adam Thielen	WR	MIN	95	67	8.2%
37	Tyreek Hill	WR	KC	159	111	8.2%
38	Antonio Brown	WR	TB	62	42	8.1%
39	Dawson Knox	TE	BUF	71	49	8.1%
40	Allen Lazard	WR	GB	60	40	8.1%
41	Russell Gage	WR	ATL	94	66	8.0%
42	Tee Higgins	WR	CIN	110	74	8.0%
43	Mark Andrews	TE	BAL	153	107	8.0%
44	Hunter Henry	TE	NE	75	50	7.3%
45	Jaylen Waddle	WR	MIA	140	104	7.2%
46	Josh Jacobs	RB	LV	64	54	6.8%
47	Leonard Fournette	RB	TB	84	69	6.4%
48	Justin Jefferson	WR	MIN	167	108	6.3%
49	DeAndre Hopkins	WR	ARI	64	42	6.2%
50	Alexander Mattison	RB	MIN	39	32	6.2%
51	T.J. Hockenson	TE	DET	84	61	6.2%
52	Devonta Freeman	RB	BAL	42	34	6.1%
53	Jerry Jeudy	WR	DEN	56	38	6.1%
54	Cordarrelle Patterson	RB	ATL	69	52	6.1%
55	Cole Beasley	WR	BUF	112	82	6.0%
56	Brandin Cooks	WR	HOU	134	90	5.9%
57	Tyler Boyd	WR	CIN	94	67	5.9%
58	Antonio Gibson	RB	WAS	52	42	5.8%
59	Mike Evans	WR	TB	114	74	5.7%
60	Javonte Williams	RB	DEN	53	43	5.4%
61	Jamison Crowder	WR	NYJ	71	51	5.2%
62	Josh Palmer	WR	LAC	49	33	5.1%
63	David Njoku	TE	CLE	53	36	5.1%
64	Stefon Diggs	WR	BUF	164	103	5.1%
65	Ja'Marr Chase	WR	CIN	128	81	5.0%
66	Devin Singletary	RB	BUF	50	40	5.0%
67	Emmanuel Sanders	WR	BUF	72	42	5.0%
68	Amari Cooper	WR	DAL	104	68	5.0%
69	Donovan Peoples-Jones	WR	CLE	58	34	4.9%
70	J.D. McKissic	RB	WAS	53	43	4.9%
71	Jakobi Meyers	WR	NE	126	83	4.8%
72	Chase Edmonds	RB	ARI	53	43	4.8%
73	Laquon Treadwell	WR	JAX	51	33	4.8%
74	Mecole Hardman	WR	KC	83	59	4.4%
75	Courtland Sutton	WR	DEN	98	58	4.3%
76	Myles Gaskin	RB	MIA	63	49	4.2%
77	Kalif Raymond	WR	DET	71	48	4.1%
78	Tim Patrick	WR	DEN	85	53	4.0%
79	Travis Kelce	TE	KC	134	92	4.0%
80	Sterling Shepard	WR	NYG	53	36	3.9%
81	DeVonta Smith	WR	PHI	104	64	3.6%
82	Rashod Bateman	WR	BAL	68	46	3.3%
83	D'Andre Swift	RB	DET	78	62	3.3%
84	Marvin Jones	WR	JAX	120	73	3.2%
85	Nelson Agholor	WR	NE	64	37	3.1%
86	Tyler Higbee	TE	LA	85	61	2.9%
87	CeeDee Lamb	WR	DAL	120	79	2.9%
88	Brandon Aiyuk	WR	SF	84	56	2.8%
89	Keenan Allen	WR	LAC	157	106	2.7%
90	Kadarius Toney	WR	NYG	57	39	2.7%
91	David Johnson	RB	HOU	42	32	2.6%
92	Kyle Pitts	TE	ATL	110	68	2.5%
93	Najee Harris	RB	PIT	94	74	2.5%
94	Braxton Berrios	WR	NYJ	65	46	2.2%
95	Terry McLaurin	WR	WAS	130	77	1.9%
96	Gabe Davis	WR	BUF	63	35	1.9%
97	Jonathan Taylor	RB	IND	51	40	1.7%
98	Dan Arnold	TE	JAX	52	35	1.5%
99	Austin Ekeler	RB	LAC	94	70	1.2%
100	Tre'Quan Smith	WR	NO	50	32	1.1%