Passer Rating vs EPA: Which Tells You More?
Why we rank quarterbacks by EPA per dropback, and what passer rating still gets right.
Read Article →Completion % on throws of 20+ air yards (minimum 2 deep attempts per team game).
The 2020 leaders: Deshaun Watson (50.0%), Derek Carr (46.0%), Daniel Jones (45.0%).
Minimum to rank: deep >= 2 × team games. 26 players.
| Rk | Player | Pos | Team | Att | Dropbacks | Deep Cmp% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Deshaun Watson | QB | HOU | 544 | 653 | 50.0% |
| 2 | Derek Carr | QB | LV | 517 | 562 | 46.0% |
| 3 | Daniel Jones | QB | NYG | 448 | 513 | 45.0% |
| 4 | Baker Mayfield | QB | CLE | 486 | 532 | 44.8% |
| 5 | Teddy Bridgewater | QB | CAR | 492 | 558 | 44.4% |
| 6 | Philip Rivers | QB | IND | 543 | 560 | 44.0% |
| 7 | Aaron Rodgers | QB | GB | 526 | 567 | 43.6% |
| 8 | Josh Allen | QB | BUF | 572 | 627 | 43.3% |
| 9 | Gardner Minshew | QB | JAX | 327 | 377 | 41.2% |
| 10 | Kirk Cousins | QB | MIN | 516 | 569 | 40.7% |
| 11 | Matt Ryan | QB | ATL | 626 | 682 | 40.5% |
| 12 | Matthew Stafford | QB | DET | 528 | 575 | 40.0% |
| 13 | Kyler Murray | QB | ARI | 558 | 627 | 39.1% |
| 14 | Nick Foles | QB | CHI | 312 | 332 | 38.6% |
| 15 | Lamar Jackson | QB | BAL | 376 | 451 | 37.8% |
| 16 | Tom Brady | QB | TB | 610 | 631 | 37.2% |
| 17 | Justin Herbert | QB | LAC | 595 | 648 | 36.9% |
| 18 | Patrick Mahomes | QB | KC | 588 | 649 | 36.6% |
| 19 | Russell Wilson | QB | SEA | 558 | 657 | 34.4% |
| 20 | Carson Wentz | QB | PHI | 437 | 508 | 31.5% |
| 21 | Ben Roethlisberger | QB | PIT | 608 | 624 | 31.3% |
| 22 | Ryan Tannehill | QB | TEN | 481 | 525 | 30.8% |
| 23 | Drew Lock | QB | DEN | 443 | 481 | 26.6% |
| 24 | Jared Goff | QB | LA | 552 | 595 | 26.5% |
| 25 | Sam Darnold | QB | NYJ | 364 | 422 | 26.3% |
| 26 | Joe Burrow | QB | CIN | 404 | 449 | 19.6% |
EPA per Dropback ACE (Accuracy Compared to Expectation) ACE per 100 Attempts Expected Completion % Success Rate Total Passing EPA Total QB EPA (Passing + Rushing) First-Down Rate per Dropback Explosive Pass Rate Negative-Play Rate Win Probability Added EPA per Dropback, Excluding Garbage Time NFL Passer Rating Completion % Yards per Attempt Adjusted Net Yards per Attempt Adjusted Yards per Attempt Net Yards per Attempt Yards per Completion Touchdown % Interception % TD:INT Ratio Sack % Passing Yards per Game Pass Attempts per Game Passing Yards Passing Touchdowns Completions Pass Attempts Interceptions Thrown Sacks Taken Passing First Downs 20+ Yard Completions 40+ Yard Completions Longest Completion 300-Yard Passing Games 4-Touchdown Games Wins as Starter Average Depth of Target Deep Attempt Rate YAC per Completion Share of Yards Through the Air 3rd-Down Conversion Rate Red Zone Touchdown Rate Clutch EPA per Dropback Clutch Passer Rating Two-Minute Drill EPA per Dropback Game-Winning Drives 4th-Quarter Comebacks Quarterback Rushing Yards Quarterback Rushing EPA Scrambles QB Sneak Conversion Rate Touchdowns Responsible For Total Yards (Passing + Rushing) Turnovers Turnover Rate per Play
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What the box score cannot tell you about the people behind the pass.
Why we rank quarterbacks by EPA per dropback, and what passer rating still gets right.
Read Article →Completion percentage over expected gives credit for difficult completions. Here is how ACE measures it.
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